The Practical Investor

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen

10:15 am

The Agricultural Index is winding up for a massive breakout this weekend as inputs (fuel, fertilizer) costs soar.  Should the Age Index rise above the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation, the H&S target may be in reach in the next 4 weeks.

ZeroHedge remarks, “The conversation grows louder by the day as disruption at the Hormuz chokepoint hits the global nitrogen fertilizer market and, in turn, is set to impact upcoming corn and grain harvests in some key growing regions.”

7:45 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures  rose to 6633.90 this morning, partially completing its retracement of last weeks decline.  While yesterday stocks experienced a record degrossing with shorts outnumbering longs 2.5 to 1, the decline may not be over.  Sentiment is the lowest since last April, but these measures have a recency bias, assuming that “normalcy” may quickly return.  The experienced investors are still on the sidelines.  The Cycles model infers a continued decline for possibly another week before a sizable bounce.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6590.00.  Long gamma may begin above 6600.00 while short gamma dominates beneath 6575.00.  The surge in this morning’s futures may have been an attempt by the dealers to achieve Max Pain (smallest options payout).

ZeroHedge remarks, “US futures are sharply higher and oil tumbles as the US reportedly offered a15-point plan to help bring the conflict to a close triggering a global rally…”

The premarket VIX eased down to 24.85 as dealers attempt to move the SPX to Max Pain.  However, it remains above the Cycle Top support at 24.13, giving a green light to moving much higher.  Trending strength is coming back, according to the Cycles Model.  a breakout above the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation may be imminent.

The April 1 options chain shows Max Pain at 21.00.  Short gamma shows a put wall at 20.00.  Long gamma begins at 22.00 and has a growing presence to 60.00.

The US 10-year Bond Yield pulled back to 43.07, just above the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation before bouncing, while the cash market shows a low at 43.30.  The test of the neckline may continue for several days, with a possible lower bottom of this correction.  The Cycles Model shows this rally to be strikingly resilient and long-lasting, possibly to early June, with the target of the head & Shoulders formation in mind.

The USD is consolidating above its correction low at 98.88.  The Cycles Model shows growing strength with a possible breakout above the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation by early next week.

Bitcoin may have put on the final touches to its retracement today at 72021.00.  The 50% retracement level is at 71700.00, so the retracement is legitimate.  Values may be different in the futures.  The decline may resume, with acceleration by Friday.

Gold continued to rise to 4633.17 in a vicious squeeze before easing back down, erasing Monday’s bloodbath.  However, the decline may resume shortly.  The panic episode and bounce-back has been spent.  However, gold may decline to a new low in the next few weeks.

Crude oil consolidates within yesterday’s range, bt may resume its decline shortly.  Current estimates put the possible low near Intermediate support at 76.74.  However, there may be a strong attraction to the 52-day Moving Average at 71.36 for the cycle low over the next three weeks.

Silver may have completed its bounce at 74.80 this morning.  From here, the decline may resume, with strong attraction to 45.00-50.00.  However, under certain circumstances it may go lower.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen

10:34 am

BKX may be having a strong up day today.  If so, a bounce may extend to Intermediate resistance and the trendline at 160.46.  The Middle East news seems to be dominant, so investors are looking for what may be trending positively, or at least not declining.  Should BKX rise above the mid-Cycle resistance at 154.40, then the trendline may come into view as the next resistance.  Apollo and Ares are two private credit funds that have gated investor liquidations.  There will be more liquidations as rising interest rates are eroding returns on private credit.  Somehow, this doesn’t reflect on bank loan quality, yet.

7:50 am

Good Morning!

SPX closed right at short-term support/resistance at 6581.00 yesterday.  The overnight session futures rose to 6605.00, then dropped to 6531.90 this morning.  It remains hovering beneath that resistance this morning.  This activity supports a resumption of the decline, or possibly a sideways consolidation.  Commentators insist that SPX remains rangebound.  However, the bottom of the 4-month “range” is the neckline at 6710.00.   Poor analysis is causing confusion as there seems to be no consensus in terms.   They may wish to dust off the venerable “Technical Analysis of Stock Trends” for reference.  In the meantime, the Cycles Mode may offer another week of serious decline before a significant bounce.  Calling the bottom this week may be an exercise in futility.

Today’s options chain shows short gamma beneath 6600.00, a warning sign that the bears may still be in control of the options market.

ZeroHedge reports, “Futures are lower but well off session lows, as overnight headlines induced another bout of aggressive choppiness: those headlines include strikes on Iranian gas facilities, Saudi and UAE considering entering the war, Iranian lawmaker ruling out US negotiations, and then reports of Iran / Egypt discussions on the region pointing toward mediation.”

The premarket VIX remains above the 52-Day Moving Average at 23.93 this morning after completing its correction.  It is also above its Cycle Top at 23.93, offering a buy signal for those who trade the VIX.  Should the VIX rise above the neckline at 25.30, it may follow through to its intended target by the end of the current Master Cycle.

The US 10-year Bond Yield is pushing higher after testing the Cycle Top resistance at 44.12.  The downtrend line is broken.  A breakout above the Cycle Top may rise to 44.50-45.00 in the next week before a pullback.  TNX is on a long Master Cycle that may challenge the October 2023 high at 49.97 by June.

1:30 pm

ZeroHedge reports, “With both foreign and domestic investors dumping gold (and anything else not nailed down) to fund oil, at its brand sparkling new price of $170 (in Asia), we were wondering how long before the lack of disposable cash hits US debt. We got the answer today at just after 1pm when we got the results of today’s $69 billion 2Year bond auction. In a nutshell, it was terrible.”

The USD bounced near its 200-day Moving Average at 98.45 and may continue higher.  The Cycles Model suggests a possible resumption of the rally until mid-April.

Bitcoin may have completed a near 50% retracement of last week’s decline yesterday and may be poised for a more serious decline.  The Cycles Model reveals a possible panic developing toward the end of the week.  A decline beneath the 52-day Moving Average at 69075 may confirm that outlook.

Crude oil is consolidating in the mid-range of yesterday’s 17% move in one day.  The consolidation may continue for the next week, perhaps a triangle formation, before declining further.  Activity on this decline may pick up in early April (boots on the ground?), as the decline may test the Intermediate support at 76.02, then the 52-day Moving Average at 70.76, or possibly lower.  However, pressure is building for a blowout to follow.

Gold’s panic decline may be over, with a bounce forming.  It bounced to 4482.74 in the overnight session and may consolidate for the next week after Monday’s record decline.  The outlook for April is murky, but negative.  Supports may be found at 4000.00, 3800.00 and 3600.00.  Possibly lower.  Once the correction is complete, gold may resume its rally for another two years.

Silver remains somewhat range-bound after Thursday’s panic.  There may be another 2 weeks of decline left in the current Master Cycle with the mid-Cycle offering support for a possible bounce at 58.50.  Beyond that, support for a bottom may be found near 45.00 by mid-April.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen

3:20 pm

The Agricultural Index stands poised for a breakout, both above the Cycle Top at 369.88, but also the neckline at the Head & Shoulders formation at 376.00.  Should that happen, the H&S target may be reached in the next month.

ZeroHedge remarks, “Alexandra Prokopenko, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center and a former advisor at the Bank of Russia, warned on X that the near-shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered an energy shock that risks morphing into a “slower, more consequential story”: fertilizers.”

2:49 pm

SPX may have completed its bounce, as the futures rose to 6698.00 this morning and the fractal appears complete.  Today’s rip higher caught many by surprise, yet those reading Friday’s report were warned in advance. The next phase may take another week or more to complete.

7:45 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures made a massive round trip over the weekend from a low of 6433.10 to a morning high at 6698.00.  The decline is complex, but the bounce was expected.  Since the futures trading is thin, this bounce was likely the work of the dealers, trying to claw back out of short gamma.  An attempt to make the neckline at 6710.00 may be in order.  Once reset, the decline may resume in just a few hours.  SPX may open beneath 6600.00.  The decline isn’t over yet.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6575.00.  Long gamma may begin above 6700.00 while short gamma dominates beneath 6550.00.

The premarket VIX rose to 31.04 on Sunday, then retreated to 20.28 this morning.  The correction may be over.  VIX appears to be dominated by the news in the Middle East.  However, there are domestic issued that , while not getting top headlines, may keep the markets chaotic.  The VIX is prone to wider price actions as the markets become more fragile.

Wednesday’s options chain shows short gamma beneath 23.00 while long gamma dominated above 24.00 and may extend to 50.00.

The US 10 year bond yield rose to 44.46 over the weekend before pulling back beneath the Cycle Top resistance at 44.11.  The Cycles Model shows relative calm, suggesting consolidation beneath the Cycle Top for the next few days.  The neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation may act as a support.

USD maintained its consolidation, not breaking out on neither the bad news nor the positive news.  While the sideways action may continue temporarily, pressure may be building  for a breakout.

Bitcoin rose toward the 50% retracement level of last week’s decline at 71700.00 this morning.  The correction may be over in a relatively short period, as it may continue the bounce to the 61.8% retracement at 72728.00.

Crude oil prices fell to 84.59 this morning, after reaching 101.66 over he weekend.  The retracement may decline as far as the 52-day Moving Average at 70.14 by mid-April.  This may give temporary relief to our domestic markets, as the US produces most of its own oil.  However, the international markets re in turmoil as, under the best of circumstances, the flow of oil may take weeks to recover.

ZeroHedge remarks, “Update (0745ET): It did not take long for the denials to emerge. Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency (which is the propaganda arm of the IRGC so take it with lots of salt)said that anonymous Iranian source, Iran is not in contact with Trump adding that “there is no direct or indirect communication with Trump.”

Silver declined to 61.24 over the weekend session, then bounced to 69.96 this morning.  Silver has been a difficult market to trade due to the high volatility.  The capacity for the decline has not been fully resolved.

ZeroHedge observes, “Silver continues to unravel. We flagged the breakdown below the 50-day not long ago (here), and since then the move has accelerated lower, now taking out the 100-day. Price is approaching the longer-term trendline, with the 200-day just below, a level many thought was “impossible” only weeks ago.

The move is being driven by a mix of positioning unwind and broader macro pressure.”

Gold declined to 4128.70 over the weekend session before starting a bounce to 4569.70.  It may consolidate above the mid-Cycle support at 4124.31 for the next week or so before moving lower.  The intermediate Cycles suggests that, once gold declines beneath 4000.00, it may plummet as low as 3150.00.

ZeroHedge remarks, “If you are new to gold, or if you are a speculator in gold (or even worse, a levered speculator in gold), you are likely asking yourselves what in the “H. E. double tooth-picks” just happened to gold?

It lost over 9% in the futures market in a single session and saw its worst week of price declines since February 1983.”

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen

7:45 am  Spring officially begins at 10:46 am today.

Good Morning!

SPX futures declined to 6549.90 in the overnight session, then bounced, with dealers attempting to push back up above 6600.00.  However, the decline is due to continue to 6500.00-6525.00, and may go lower before the next bounce, which may subsequently be resisted beneath 6600.00.    Yesterday the market experienced a near record of SPX futures liquidations by institutions.  That may continue today.  Speculators are starting to buy SPX calls for next week, signifying a larger potential bounce, but they are still early in the decline.  Meanwhile, retail investors have stayed away, quelling the urge to “buy the dip.”  The liquidation of longs may continue to be orderly, but a panic may develop when the next tranche of short covering/call buying fails. It is more likely that the current Master Cycle in the SPX may terminate near 6200.00.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6650.00.  Long gamma begins above 6665.00, while SPX futures are deep in short gamma beneath 6600.00.  There are several substantial walls of puts down to 6500.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “Futures are weaker heading into the weekend after US equities finished lower yesterday despite Netanyahu headlines leading to a late day bounceback into EOD.”

The premarket VIX is consolidating above the Cycle Top at 23.55 this morning.  In the past, the VIX has been ahead of the SPX moves.  This time, the VIX seems hesitant.  That hesitation may stop when the VIX powers above the neckline of the head &  Shoulders formation.

The US 10-year Bond Yield has risen above the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation this morning near 43.00.  It may indicate a resumption of the rally to the Cycle Top at 44.06 by the end of the month.

11:00 Update

The US 10-year Bond Yield has ramped up to 43.93, already this morning, showing the beginning signs of panic.  The oil market getting tighter, especially in Asia and Europe.  This is driving inflation much higher than expected.

USD bounced, but may be headed lower today.  The fuel for a larger bounce may be at the mid-Cycle support at 98.43.  It simply needs to power to rise through the Head & Shoulders neckline at 100.54.

The Japanese Yen bounced today, but it may have already run out of gas.  While it appears strong, it may be too early in the Master Cycle for a firm take-off.  A confirmation of a true reversal may be implied by overtaking resistance at 63.92.  Otherwise it may reverse down to the Cycle Bottom at 61.92 in another week or so.

Bitcoin bounced at Intermediate support at 68867.00 yesterday and may test the 52-day Moving Average at 70500.00 today in a consolidation.  Should the 52-day  resist, bitcoin may resume its decline.  A slip beneath Intermediate support offers a sell signal that may be the onset of a serious decline as early as this weekend.

Silver declined to 70.87 in the overnight session before bouncing to 74.60.  The intraday swings are becoming more powerful, indicating the decline may not be over.  The Cycles Model calls for a possible panic decline over the weekend, then another bounce.  The next support may be the mid-Cycle level at 58.16.  Beneath that, supports may be found at 50.00, 45.00, and 40.00

ZeroHedge comments, “Silver has gone from chaos to “boredom”, and that’s exactly where traders get hurt the most. The panic is gone, but the pain isn’t, as both bulls and bears keep getting chopped up inside a range that refuses to break.”

Gold found support at 4500.00 yesterday and is due for a bounce.  Today it rose to 4736.10 before settling down a bit.  There is a potential for a higher bounce as   Resistance lies at the 52-day Moving Average at 4944.00.  The chop is wearing investors down.

Crude oil may have begun its descent with a new low at 92.48 this morning.  The cycles Model infers a breakdown in oil lasting to mid-April.  There are multiple supports below that may offer a bounce or possibly a reversal.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen

8:00 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures continued their descent to 6595.20 thus far after closing deep in short gamma beneath 6700.00.  The Head & Shoulders formation has been activated and may follow through to its target in the next several days.   The implications of short gamma are that the the dealers have stopped taking the opposite side of the bearish transactions (puts) and have added shorts as well.  In this case, the tail (options) is (are) wagging the dog.  Fuel shocks are adding to the malaise.

Today’s options chain is beyond Max Pain at 6700.00.  There is a small put wall at 6600.00 that may be taken out.  Should the SPX go lower, 6600.00 may act as resistance to a bounce.  Another put wall lies at 6550.00 which may incite a bounce.  The largest put wall is at 6400.00, near the Head & Shoulders target.

The premarket VIX rose to 26.62 thus far this morning.  VIX may rise to challenge the neckline of the Head & Shoulders at 35.30.  Should that occur in the next day or two, the upper target may be in play.

The March 25 options chain shows Max Pain at 20.00 with a call wall at 24.00 giving support to the current rally.  The next call wall is at 30.00 with a strong likelihood of reaching it in the next day or two.

The US 10-year Bond Yield has gapped above the neckline of the head & Shoulders formation,  The immediate goal may be to reach the Cycle Top at 44.07 before retesting the neckline.  The loss of the oil infrastructure has been very inflationary.

USD is poised beneath its Cycle Top at 100.22 and the Head & Shoulders neckline at 100.55.  The Cycles Model appears non-directional for another week, then the dollar may be energized towards the end of march and continue higher to mid-April.

Bitcoin is testing the 52=day Moving Average at 68835.00 this morning.  Should it break down, a sell signal may be given.  Currently, the downside may offer support at round numbers (60000.00, 50000.00 and 40000.00).  Each level may be given consideration for limiting or continuation of the decline.

Crude oil is stalling at the mid-range of yesterday’s levels.  The Cycles Model suggests a neutral-to-lower stance for the next couple of weeks.

Gold declined to 4505.31 today and may be ready for a bounce.  The possible target for the decline may be near 4400.00 over the next three weeks.  The 52-day Moving Average at 4937.00 may act as overhead resistance to the bounce.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen

10:56 am

The Agriculture Index may be poised for a double reversal, where two reversals occur within the same Cycle pivot period.  Be on alert for a breakout above the Head & Shoulders neckline in the next two weeks, as that could propel the Ag Index higher through late April.  More reports may be forthcoming as this possibility develops.

10:17 am

BKX remains on a sell signal and the weak bounce at the Head & Shoulders neckline has not been able to threaten short positions already taken.  A move beneath the neckline activates the formation.

9:49 am

SPX gapped down beneath its Head & Shoulders neckline at 6710.00, giving/reiterating its sell signal.  The head & Shoulders formation is still viable after having crossed the neckline multiple times.

ZeroHedge comments, “The digital ink on  the Fed statement is still wet and the kneejerk reactions are already flying. Here is a small sample of the more notable ones, with opinions ranging from this was a dovish, neutral and hawkish statement. So right in the middle, perhaps as Powell intended…”

7:50 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures rose to 6762.10 thus far this morning, near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 6765.00.  The SPX has ben governed by the “fences’ put up in the options market.  The high “fence” is long gamma, above which may force dealers to go long, was at 6750.00 yesterday.  The low “fence” is short gamma, which may pull dealers to go short, was at 6680.00 yesterday.  Options dealers attempt to keep them “fenced in” which gives them the ability to close at Max Pain, the level at which the dealer payout is minimal.  As long as the fences are not broken, the dealers control the options market.  SPX closed at 6716.09, very near “Max Pain” at 6710.00.  Even though there are plenty of bears and indications of a potential stumble, the SPX continues to grind lower, rather than fall.  One thing that can change the market’s velocity is today’s FOMC meeting.  The Cycles Model calls for a “strong reaction” to the news that may stampede the herd through the lower fence.

8:55 Addendum:  It appears that the action in the Middle East may have beaten the FOMC to the punch.

Today’s options chain shows Max pain at 6735.00.  Long gamma may begin above 6750.00.  Short gamma appears beneath 6700.00.  The fencelines have moved northward, making the neckline at 6710.00 a viable sell signal.

ZeroHedge reports, “Stocks were set to extend gains into a third day as Iraq’s deal to reroute crude via Turkey, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, eased some supply concerns as Iranian strikes target Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and UAE, but it all unwound shortly after 7am ET,  following an Iranian report that US and Israeli airstrikes hit its giant South Pars natural gas field and associated infrastructure…”

The premarket VIX declined to 21.47 earlier this morning, but may have already begun its bounce as it approaches its Cycle Top resistance at 23.31.  A buy signal appears above that level. The Cycles Model anticipates a rise in trending strength through the end of the week.  Should the VIX rise above its Cycle Top,  a panic rally may ensue with a possible activation of the Head & Shoulders formation.  This may be the calm before the storm.

The March 25 options chain shows Max Pain at 20.00-21.00.  Short gamma has a singular outlier at 16.00.  Long gamma may begin at 22.00 with the first call wall at 30.00.

The US 10-year Bond Yield may have found support with the overnight futures bouncing at the mid-Cycle support at 41.74 and the cash market opening above the 200-day Moving Average at 41.93.  The bond market is set to react violently to the FOMC as well, with a potential breakout.  Should that occur, the head & Shoulders formation may be activated, with consequent results.

ZeroHedge warns, “After a hotter than expected print in January, US Producer Prices were expected to continue to rise (but only modestly) in February data released today. The consensus direction was right but the scale was way off as headline PPI accelerated 0.7% MoM (vs +0.3% exp and +0.5% prior) – the biggest monthly jump since July 2025.”

USD may do a double reversal today.  The normal reaction to the March 13 reversal would be a possible decline lasting several weeks.  However, USD is rising today, an early sign that the USD may resume its rally in a month-long phase reversal.  Watch for a rise above the Cycle Top at 100.19, then above the neckline at 100.55 to trigger this event.

Bitcoin is showing mixed signals that a pullback may be imminent.  A decline beneath the 52-day Moving Average at 71240.00 urges caution.  Intermediate support at 68854.77 may be a level beneath which the rally may be in danger.

Silver declined to 75.70 this morning as it may continue its downside correction.  The  selling isn’t done yet, with the next possible bounce at the mid-Cycle support which resides at 57.75.  Further possible supports lie at 45.00 and 35.00.  There is still time for this correction to play out.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen

11:37 am

SPX went higher this morning, but is giving up its gains.  Crossing beneath the neckline at 6710.00 offers a reiteration of the existing sell signal.  In this very choppy market, a sell signal should be taken seriously.  It may mean “reduce long exposure” or “go short”, depending on the risk tolerance of the investor.  So far, the SPX has taken the stairway lower.  The next iteration may be to take the elevator.

8:00 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures descended to test mid-Cycle support at 6664.30 in the overnight session, indicating a downward bias.  It has since bounced back to 6700.00 and remains there at this time.  The short-term Cycles suggest that Monday’s bounce may be over, or nearly so, having met the trendline at 6710.00 and been repelled at the 38.2% Fibonacci at 6714.00 by closing beneath them.  Should a short-term bounce continue this morning, resistance may be found at 6740.00 and again at 6765.00.  The decline may resume today with a potential panic day tomorrow.  A bounce may occur on Friday due to options expiration, then a final decline into the end of the month.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain (least payout by the dealers) at 6710.00.  Long gamma begins above 6750.00 with a call wall at 6780.00.  Short gamma lurks beneath 6680.00 with a put wall at 6600.00.  Friday’s options chain shows $70 billion of protective options (puts).  Of those, $20 billion fall off, creating a possible vacuum in the options market on Monday.

ZeroHedge reports, “Stock futures have reversed overnight losses and traded at session high, just above the flatline, despite diesel topping $5 a gallon – the highest since 2022 – with Iran expanding attacks on energy infrastructure around the Middle East and Israel targeting military / security leadership, reportedly killing Iran security chief Ali Larijani and the commander of Iran’s paramilitary Basij unit.”

The premarket VIX has declined to 22.88 thus far.  I had indicate yesterday that perhaps it may decline to 22.20.  That move may be possible this morning.  However, a rise above the Cycle Top at 23.51 reiterates the buy signal.  While the SPX Cycles Model infers a significant low at the end of March, the VIX Cycle may persist to mid-April.  The question is, will the mid-April terminus be a high or a low?

Tomorrow’s monthly options chain shows Max Pain at 22.00  Short gamma dominated the range from 15.00 to 21..50 while long gamma begins at 23.00 and has significant ownership to 100.00.

The US 10-year Bond Yield may be approaching the 200-day Moving Average at 21.94 this morning.  That should limit the retracement and allow TNX to resume its surge higher.  The Cycles Model suggests a burst of trending strength tomorrow may elevate TNX to the Cycle Top resistance at 44.07.

USD may be relieving its overbought condition by declining to the 200-day Moving Average at 98.36 before resuming its probe higher.  The retracement process may take a week or more.  However, the next surge higher may take USD to 101.50-102.00.

The Japanese Yen may have made an early Master Cycle low on Friday.  While it may take the rest of this week to gain certainty of the reversal, the end of the month shows a particularly strong finish for the Yen.   This may add yet another headwind to the banking and insurance sector.

Bitcoin hit 76000.00 today before a pullback that may go as far as the 52-day Moving Average at 71510.00.   Bit coin is in a dynamic rally that may last to the end of April and place Bitcoin near the mid-Cycle resistance at 92107.00.  The next overhead resistance may occur near 80000.00.  Bitcoin may act as a currency proxy for people to move assets across borders, at least until their governments install currency controls which would ban bitcoin from use.

Crude oil may have reversed from its secondary high at 102.44.  The Cycles Model suggests a decline that may go to the Intermediate support at 71.41 with an outer limit at the 52-day Moving Average at 67.16.  While the Model suggests the decline may extend to mid-April, it may end sooner.  Domestically, diesel rose above $5 per gallon and gasoline is up nearly 25%.

ZeroHedge observes, “Crude oil futures rose in overnight trading, with Brent nearly reaching $105 per barrel and WTI climbing as high as $98.42 per barrel, as Iran intensified drone strikes on energy infrastructure across the Gulf.

“Further ominous developments today. For the first time, Iran successfully targeted oil and gas production facilities, rather than refining, terminals, and storage,” Bloomberg Opinion and commodities columnist Javier Blas wrote on X.”

Silver surged to 82.76 overnight before resuming its decline.  The Cycles Model calls for three more weeks of decline.  The next model support area may be the mid-cycle at 57.52.  Other supports that may be considered are round numbers (50.00, 40.00) and a possible 4-year trendline near 35.00.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen

3:25 pm

BKX was unable to energize a sizable bounce today.  I may be ready to slip through the Head & Shoulders neckline with the target possibly being attained in the next month.

3:00 pm

SPX rose to 6722.87, a small overshoot of the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 6714.00.  It now appears to be stuck at the neckline at 6710.00.  While it may still go a bit higher, SPX may go lower, first.    The  50% retracement level is at 6740.00 and the 61.8% retracement is at 6765.00.  One of those two levels may be attempted before the bounce is over.  Regardless of the retracent levels, SPX remains on a sell signal.

ZeroHedge advises, “Markets are pointing higher this morning. But do not chase. Remember, don’t get caught up in narratives about what assets are “supposed” to do.”

8:00 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures bounced to 6689.20 over the weekend thus far.  The bounce came near the 200-day Moving Average at 6604.00 where short covering began.  Overhead resistance to the bounce lies at the neckline  at 6710.00.  SPX may consolidate between the 200-day and the neckline for the next two days.  After a record purchase of short ETFs on Friday, the market was primed for a bounce at the 200-day.  In addition, hardship withdrawals from 401(k) plans also hit a record last week.

Today’s options chain reveals Max Pain at 6700.00, another reason for the bounce.  Long gamma strengthens above 6725.00 while short gamma is strong beneath 6675.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “Stock futures are higher AS energy prices dip modestly even as the war in the Middle East enters a third week, with Trump’s endgame unclear amid requests for international help to reopen the SoH.”

Premarket VIX dropped to 24.72 over the weekend session.  VIX may correct down to 22.20 in a “flat” correction.  Lower is possible, but less likely.  The Cycles Model suggests the VIX may start ratcheting higher toward the end of the week.  There will be a lot of pressure to keep this week’s op-ex calm.

Wednesday’s options chain shows Max Pain elevated to 22.00.  Short gamma registers well between 15.00 and 21.00.  Long gamma may begin at 23.00 and shows institutional presence up to 100.00.

The US 10-year bond yield has retreated from resistance at 43.00 to consolidate for a couple of days.  Its downside target may be the 200-day Moving Average at 41.95.  Trending strength returns in the latter half of the week, as TNX may probe to new highs.

The USD retreated from its Friday high in a consolidation move that may last up to 2 weeks.  The 200-day Moving Average at 98.38 is a likely landing spot before the uptrend resumes.

Bitcoin ceased its bearish leanings by ramping  to a new high above the 52-day Moving Average at 71792.00 over the weekend.  While overbought and due for a possible pullback, bitcoin may be trending higher for up to another month.  A volatile patch at mid-week may give a possible hint of what its leanings really are.

Silver declined to 77.20 over the weekend before it bounced.  It may have another three weeks of decline ahead as it furthers its correction.  The next support level may be the mid-Cycle support at 57.28.

Gold slipped beneath 5000.00 this weekend as it continues its decline.  supports are at the 52-day Moving Average at 4902.53 and 4400.00.

Crude oil advanced to 99.71 over the weekend session before a pullback with a low at 91.88 as crude was showing signs of exhaustion.  The decline may continue for up to next four weeks with a possible target near the Cycle Top at 76.81 and as low as the 52-day Moving Average currently at 66.49.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen

2:45 pm

SPX may have begun a bounce to retest the trendline at 6710.00, very near a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (of this decline) at 6713.00.  The retracement may not last, once it has reached its goal.

Addendum:  SPX may go even lower, possibly to 6600.00 this afternoon.

7:45 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures declined beneath the mid-Cycle support at 6651.00 to 6636.90 before bouncing to 6707.50, under the Head & Shoulders neckline at 6710.00.  Retail investors are not buying the dip, leaving yesterday’s attempt at a short squeeze empty handed.  Having possibly broken the next layer of support, there is a strong likelihood of a further decline to the Head & Shoulders target by next week.  Seasonality tells us that we may see a trough in March.  However, the Cycles Model suggests a possible further decline into early April.

Today’s options chain shows Mac Pain at 6750.00.  Long gamma dominates above 6775.00 while short gamma remains strong beneath 6700.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “US stock futures rebounded from their overnight selloff, and were trading near session highs after three days of losses on Wall Street as Brent slipped below $100 a barrel and investors waited to see if the war in the Middle East would escalate further.”

Premarket VIX pushed up to 28.47, testing the lower Head & Shoulders neckline overnight, then pulled back.  Commentators are looking for a peak in the VIX this month.  However, VIX remains on a buy signal that may prevail until mid-April.  The double Head & Shoulders formations appear to be a product of the choppy market this year.

The March 18 (monthly) options chain shows Max Pain at 21.00, where dealers may have the least payout.  Short gamma runs heavy between 15.00 and 21.00.  Long gamma picks up at 22.00 and shows large investor presence every 5 points up to 80.00.

TNX broke through its trendline yesterday.  This morning it is pulling back, testing new found support.  The Cycles Model calls for an increase of trending strength over the weekend, with possible sustained strength during the following week.

ZeroHedge reports, “After two mixed coupon auctions this week, including a subpar 3Y and a strong 10Y, moments ago the Treasury concluded the week’s coupon issuance when it sold $22BN in 30Y bonds in another solid auction.”

USD may have made its Master Cycle high this morning at 100.30 on day 255 of its Master Cycle.  This may not be confirmed until next week.  Should that be so, a month-long retracement may follow, possibly taking the USD to its Cycle Bottom at 96.58.  An alternative view suggests that, if the retracement remains (shallow) above trendline support or the 200-dy Moving Average at 98.36, it may double back, making new highs.

Bitcoin surged to its 52-day Moving Average at 72789.00 this morning.  Should it continue to rally above the March 4 high at 74084.00, the retracement may go higher.    The sideways consolidation must resolve.

Silver made a new overnight low at 81.52, then bounced to the 52-day Moving Average at 85.77, remaining beneath it.  The decline may resume as trending (declining) strength returns.

Gold has made a new low today at 5023.51 as it resumes its decline.  A  likely target may be the mid-Cycle support, currently at 4076.50.  The Cycles Model allows up to approximately three more weeks to a possible reversal.  Despite declining equities, gold isn’t acting like the hedge it has been claimed to be.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen

12:17 pm

BKX is testing its neckline again as banks begin to recognize their exposure to private credit.  Investors have begun to liquidate their private credit funds before the gates slam shut, trapping them in an illiquid quagmire.  Meanwhile , banks that have made financing available now realize that their exposure may be greater than anticipated.   The party is over and what’s left is in shambles.  That is now added to the questionable CRE loans.

ZeroHedge observes, “Yet another canary in the ever growing coalmine that is private credit appeared this morning as Deustche Bank’s annual report flagged a significant €26 billion ($30 billion) exposure to private credit, an asset class that’s grappling with fund redemptions, scrutiny of underwriting standards and the impact of AI on some borrowers such as software makers.”

8:10 M

Good Morning!

SPX futures declined to 6702.00 this morning thus far.  Today the Cycles Model suggests a panic decline may be underway.  The neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation at 6710.00 has been  crossed again, allowing the formation to resume its course.  The crisis in private credit and their lending institutions would make the front page of the news if blown up oil tankers weren’t so photogenic.  The current Master Cycle still has at least a week to go and a lot of damage may be done in a very short time.

A much subdued options chain shows Max Pain at 6780.00.  Long gamma emerges above 6800.00 while short gamma lurks beneath 6750.00.The dealers did a yeoman’s job of paying out the least possible over the last month of high velocity moves.

ZeroHedge reports, “US futures are sharply lower, as oil briefly surges back over $100 while markets start to accept the view that the Iran war will not end this week, and possibly any time soon.”

The premarket VIX rose to 26.00 this morning and threatens to go higher.  The original Head & Shoulders neckline awaits at 28.25 for the activation signal.  However, the back-and-forth gyrations in the VIX may have formed a second, more potent Head & Shoulders formation that meets an ideal structural layout.  Should the VIX break out quickly, the second formation may prevail.  Oil volatility may be at the heart of this phenomenon.

The March 18 options chain shows Max pain at 21.50.  Short gamma lingers between 15.00 and 21.00.  Long gamma begins at 22.00 and ratchets up beyond 100.00.

The US 10-year Bond Yield futures have risen to 42.42 this morning, threatening to breach the upper trendline of a massive triangle formation at 42.50.  It has already surpassed the 200-day Moving Average at 41.07, confirming the buy signal.  The Cycles Model warns of increasing volatility over the weekend, suggesting problems in the Middle East aren’t going away.  In addition, TNX may be ramping higher until the end of May.

ZeroHedge reports, “After yesterday’s mediocre 3Y auction, today we had the highlight of the week’s coupon issuance when the Treasury sold $39BN in benchmark 10Y paper. And amid a painful selloff that pushed 10Y yields above 4.20%, the auction wasn’t too bad all things considered.”

USD rose to 98.53 this morning as it approaches the Cycle Top resistance at 100.11.  The Cycles Model suggests another week of rally that may puncture that resistance.  This may raise the discomfort level of the dollar shorts who would love to see the USD decline again.  Instead of buying the coming dip, they should sell the pullback to preserve capital.

TheEpochTimes observes, “For decades, the U.S. dollar has been the foundation of the global financial system. It dominates trade settlement, anchors central-bank reserves, and underpins international financial networks such as SWIFT. That status has given Washington enormous economic and geopolitical leverage.”

Bitcoin continues its consolidation, but the sideways moves have brought it back into overbought territory.  The Cycles Model suggests next week may be more active for bitcoin as gravity (illiquidity) takes over.  A decline beneath Intermediate support at 68125.00 may trigger a new sell signal.

Silver has declined beneath the 52-day Moving Average at 85.55 today, giving a sell signal.  The next visible support lies at 56.79, but may give way to a deeper low near 45.00, with  35.00 as an outer limit.