The Practical Investor

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen

7:45 am

Good Morning!

There was an unexplained glitch in my website that not only lost all the data, but denied access as well.  I will not speculate on the cause.  Fortunately, a backup was available dated October 30.  So, I am running again with no plans to restore the lost data.

SPX futures are consolidating after a week of gains.  Last Thursday’s call for a low was spot-on.  The Cycles Model suggests a possible retest of the November 5 low in the next two weeks.  The explanation…the Cycles Model shows no particular strength through the rest of the month. The month of December, however, may be very active.

The alternative may be a continued rally, instead.  A rally above the 52-day Moving Average may confirm the rally with a buy signal.

ZeroHedge reports, “US futures are higher as traders move on from the Nvidia leadership shock and shrug off a global Microsoft outage that is now in its second day, while the IEA’s call that the oil market is swinging to a surplus and a rebound in short-dated Treasuries take some of the edge off the week’s bond rout heading into the PPI report.”

The premarket VIX has also been consolidating near the mid-Cycle suport/resistance at 18.41.  Should it gain a foothold there, it may rise back to the Cycle Top at 25.49 in the next week, where trending strength prevails. This may be a very confusing time for hedgers as the VIX zigzags through an obstacle course of support and resistance.

ZeroHedge offers a very long read, ” Slack is what runs out first, and there is less of it now than at any point since 2008, with eight weeks left in the year. Both chambers of Congress changed hands four days ago while the executive kept the war. Borrowing authority expires around the turn of the year. Reservoirs serving forty million people sit at their lowest recorded elevations, measured in August, when they ought to be full. Measles has passed five thousand cases for the first time in a quarter century and a regional health body is preparing to certify that the country can no longer keep it out.”

The US 10-year Bond Yield continues its climb above the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation at 50.00. It may be due for a short-term pullback to retest the neckline before moving higher.  The Cycles Model infers growing strength in the rally to mid-December.

ZeroHedge observes, “Amid the now daily firehose of news, the US Treasury managed to sneak in an auction of $25 billion in 30Y paper, and while not as ugly as Tuesday’s terrible 10Y auction, today’s auction was not pretty… at all.”

ZeroHedge remarks, “September was not a terrible month for the US budget deficit; well it wasn’t great either, but at just a deficit of $27 billion in the last month of fiscal 2026, at a time when the US traditionally burns through 9 cash digits every month, it was relatively forgettable.

One can’t say the same thing for October – the first month of fiscal 2027 – when all hell fiscal broke loose.”

The US Dollar rose to its highest level since April 2025, confounding the Dollar shorts.  The Cycles Model suggests the USD may continue its rally with minimal pullbacks until the end of November.  The Head & Shoulders target may be in view.

The Euro broke beneath the Head & Shoulders neckline to the lowest value since April 2025.  The H&S formation may have been activated, with a possible retest of the neckline prior to moving lower.  The weakness is profound, sending liquidity to the US Dollar and US stocks.

Crude oil is challenging the mid-Cycle resistance at 89.51 this morning.  A rise above it confirms the buy signal given above the 200-day Moving Average at 87.62.  It has made an early Master Cycle low on November 10, with a possible prolonged rally out of that low until the end of the year.

Spot Gold has challenged the neckline of its Head & Shoulders formation, allowing a potential engagement of that formation.  The Cycles Model allows Gold to decline to its Cycle Bottom at 3733.00, once it closes beneath the neckline.

ZeroHedge remarks, “For three years the gold story was about who was buying. In 2026 it has become a story about where the metal sleeps at night.

On Tuesday the Monetary Authority of Singapore opened its national currency vault, with room for 500 tons of bullion, to foreign central banks and sovereign entities, and threw in a tax break for the wholesale gold trade to sweeten the deal.”

The Agriculture Index rose above the mid-Cycle resistance at 386.13 this moring, offering a possible buy signal.  This has been unexpected, as the October 30 MC was delayed while the November 10 low was early, although both are within the deviations allowed from the mean length of the Cycle.
This anomaly may clear up in the next week.  Failure to close above the mid-Cycle resistance may incur a decline to a nominal new low.

Marketplace.org discusses, “For many farmers across the country, when they have a good harvest, the next question is what prices will look like.

“Marketplace” host Kai Ryssdal started talking with Iowa farmer April Hemmes back in 2019 about how the first Trump administration’s tariffs affected her Iowa corn and soybean farm. This year, amid tariffs and inflation, Hemmes had her best harvest ever. So, now her eye is on the market price of corn and soybeans — as well as the cost of fertilizer and diesel.”

Bitcoin is plummeting beneath its mid-Cycle support at 72531.00 with no potential supports in sight.  The Cycle Bottom lies at 55837.00.  The current master Cycle may last until mid-January.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen

9:00 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures declined to 7632.70 this morning as the  MAG 7 face a total wipeout.  However, SPX has not damaged the rising Fractal in place since June.  The rising Fractal remains intact above 7500.00.

Zerohedge reports, “US futures slide with Nasdaq futures tumbling more than 2%, as the AI reckoning that started with Alphabet’s record plunge claims two more megacaps: Amazon slides after a capex shock and the slowest e-commerce growth in three years, while Intel craters 26% after a guide that was “much weaker than expected”…”

NDX futures cratered to 28607.90 this morning.  However, the floor for the bull market is the mid-Cycle support at 28105.30.  The Master Cycle mayhave been extended to today and remains within the guidelines.  The NDX remains in the uptrend above the mid-Cycle support at 28105.30, regardless of performance of individual stocks.

Zerohedge observes, “AI infrastructure stocks tumbled in premarket trading in New York after disappointing results from Amazon and Intel. Amazon is down about 7% following Thursday’s earnings report, as cash burn surged and weak guidance spooked investors.

Shifting focus to Intel, shares are down 25% in premarket trading. If losses carry into the cash session and exceed 26%, the stock could be on track for its worst intraday decline in Bloomberg data going back to 1982.”

The DJIA declined to 52153.10 this morning, remaining above Intermediate support at 51816.00 and on a (qualified) buy signal.  We may see an extension of a Master Cycle low in the SPX and NDX.  HOwever, the DJIA low remains intact.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen

10:00 am

The Banking Index surged above the mid-Cycle resistance at 173.38, reaching for the 52-day Moving Average at 177.86.  The Master Cycle is a week overdue, but price appears to be dictating the time on its own terms.  Today we see a burst of energy that may exhaust the Cycle.

ZeroHedge remarks, “I‘ve been harping on the problems in commercial real estate for years now, and one of the more interesting developments over the last several months has been how little anybody seems to be talking it them anymore.

For a while, commercial real estate was supposedly going to bring down the banking system. Then the regional bank failures came and went, the Federal Reserve helped stabilize the financial system, and the market collectively decided that the problem had been contained.”

8:15 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures declined to 7706.50, remaining aboe the 52-day Moving Average at 7698.84.  The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement is at 7702.00, so it may retrace to the minimum standard retracement.  There may be a possible surge of trending strength starting today and extending into next week as the election progresses.  It may not assure victory for either side, but it shows market confidence may be on the upswing.

ZeroHedge reports, “US futures are lower, with Nasdaq contracts sliding as Alphabet’s ugly search miss revived the “is AI capex paying off” debate…”

The premarket VIX may be consolidating on the mixed news.  The Cycles Model suggests the VIX may remain “sleepy” over the next two weeks.

The US 10-year Bond Yield declined down to 50.11, above the Head & Shoulders neckline at 50.00 while the 52-day Moving Average rises to 49.96.  The TNX may xontinue to consolidate along the neckline for another week before a new burst of Trending Strength arrives.  It hovers on a buy signal at the 52-day at this time.  It may test the low at 49.39 before moving above its consolidation renge at 50.50.

The US Dollar may have successfully tested the head & Shoulders neckline at 101.80, bu remains beneath the Cycle Top.  The Cycles Model suggests a possible breakout this weekend.

The Euro declined to its Head & Shulders neckline this morning and remains poised above it.  The Cycles Model suggests that some disturbance this weekend may jolt the Euro beneath the neckline, activating the Head & Shoulders formation.  The decline may last to the end of November.

ZeroHedge observes, “Hot on the heels of ECB President Lagarde’s statement about early retirement, The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged as was fully expected.

The deposit rate was left at 2.5%, as predicted by almost all economists surveyed by Bloomberg.”

Crude oil continues to consolidate as it may be building energy for the next probe higher.  There may be an imminent burst of Trending Strength that may propel WTI to  its Cycle Top at 111.75, above the neckline at 110.75.  It remains on a buy signal that may last for the next 3-4 weeks.

Spot Gold is consolidating above the trendline at 3950.00.  While the Master Cycle may be complete at the October 23 low, there is room for yet another probe lower.  A burst of volatility may be imminent, allowing gold to reach its target at 3950.00.

Bitcoin remains in consolidation above its October 24 Master Cycle low and beneath its 52-day Moving Average at 81803.00.  Bitcoin is due for a burst of volatility/energy that may propel it above resistance.  A buy signal awaits a rise above the 52-day MOving Average at 81800.00 with confirmation above the necklne at 82200.00.

The Agriculture Index  has met the mid-Cycle support at 384.12 this morning in what may turn out to be a high volatility day.  Both time and price have met at an ideal Cycle setting.  The Cycles Model calls for a 3-4 week rally that may test the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen

8:15 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures rose to a morning hihg at 7739.50 before easing back.  It is now on a buy signal, above the 52-day Moving Average at 7699.64.  While there may be a pullback, it appears to be short, as Trending Strength may ignite by the weekend.  A market shakeout may be about to take place as entrenched shorts are ejected from their positions.

ZeroHedge reports, “US futures are higher, if only in Nasdaq terms, as a memory-chip frenzy sparked by SK Hynix’s blowout results revives the AI trade ahead of today’s Fed decision and tonight’s Alphabet and Microsoft earnings…”

The premarket VIX has declined to 17.43 thus far.  It is beneath the mid-Cycle suport/resistance at 18.35 in a decline that has become more complex as the extension of the decline may form a Triangle tail.  The trend may be “down” through the nesst month in what appears to be a “disconnect” from market perceptions..

The US 10-year Bond Yield futures briefly rose to 50.26 this morning before settling down beneath 50.00 at the open.  While analysts call the prospect of a rate hike “unfathomable,” the Cycles Model infers that a breakout may be imminent.  Should that be the case, the Head & Shoulders formation may be activated, allowing the uptrend to resume until mid-December.

US Dollar is hovering beneath its Cycle Top at 102.44.  While resistance may hold temporarily, The Cycles Model indicates a potential increase of Trending Strength by the weekend.  This may propel the rising trend to the end of November.

The Euro declined to the neckline of its new Head & Shoulders formation and bounced this morning.  It may consolidate above the neckline until the weekend, when Trending (downside) Strength pulls it under.  The Cycles Model infers a possible strong decline through the end of November.

Crude Oil is consolidating beneath the neckline of a Head & Shoulders formation.  Trending Strength may be building for a breakout by the weekend.  The Cycles Model allows aproximately three more weeks of rally.

Spot gold is hovering above its Friday low.  While there may be a diminishing possibility of another lower probe, there is an imminent and rising probability of a burst in Trending (upside) Strength.  A buy signal may be obtaines above Intermediate resistance at 4180.19.  Should that be activated, the new trend may continue to mid-December.

The Agriculture Index continues its belated Master Cycle probe toward the mid-Cycle support at 383.90.  Whether it probes lower today or not, there may be a sudden reversal, as Trending (upside) Strength may be imminent.

The Epoch Times observes, “This past weekend, I was sitting at the Weston A. Price Foundation’s Wise Traditions Conference when Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) took the stage. Before he could say a word, the audience rose to its feet in a standing ovation.

During his speech, he mentioned legislation he had introduced that would allow small American farmers to slaughter and process their own livestock and sell that meat directly to consumers without mandatory federal inspection.”

Bitcoin continues to consolidate above its Master Cycle low at 79212.00.  There may be a buy signal above the 52-day Moving Average at 81768.00.  There is additional confirmation above the trendline at 82200.00.  There may be a flash of strength today (FOMC day) that could send BTC above resistance.  The new Master Cycle may last to mid-January.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen

1:25 pm

SPX has risen above the 52-day Moving Average at 7703.00 this morning.  It is on a buy signal.  The Cycles Model suggests the rally may last through mid-December with a target near 8100.00.

8:15 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures rose to the 52-day Moving Average at 7702.13 this morning.  A rise above it offers a potential buy signal.  Trending Strength may return by the weekend.  The Cycles Model infers a rally may proceed to challenge its current all-time-high at 7844.52.  Should it succeed , it may proceed to the Cycle Top near 8100.00.  The new Master Cycle may last to mid-December,

ZeroHedge reports, “US futures are higher as hopes for a diplomatic end to the Iran war got a fresh boost after Monday’s Mecca Pact talks in Tehran, with Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei calling for pursuing the conditions set out by Iranian officials to end the war…”

The premarket VIX declined to 17.67, beneath mid-Cycle support at 18.35.  This move offers a sell signal.  The current Master Cycle may continue its decline to late November, re-activating the Triangle “tail”.  Investors are walking away from their hedges, but not fully embracing the rally, yet.  A lot may hinge on the election outcome.

The US 10-year Bond Yield may be testing the underside of the Head & Shoulders formation at 50.00.  It may challenge the neckline, but the Fractal Model suggests more downside.  In addition, TNX may remain beneath the neckline for another two weeks, or until it reaches the 8-month rising trendline currently near 48.50.

ZeroHedge observes, “A week that sees a barrage of macro news, earnings, political developments, capital markets events including the massive Anthropic IPO offering doc and a record equity offering by Meta, also has a flood of coupon issuance to contend with starting with today’s $69BN in 2Y paper which sold to tepid demand ahead of this week’s FOMC decision.

Let’s see how the auction did, starting with the high yield 4.708% which was modestly below last month’s 4.787% which was the highest since June 2024. This tailed the When Issued 4.705% by 0.3 bps, the biggest tail since March.”

The US Dollar rallid beneath its Cycle Top, which may provide resistance.  Should the resistance hold, USD may decline further beneath the neckline of the head & Shoulders formation.  However, Trending Strength may return this weekend that may pierce the Cycle Top, leaving the rally intact to the end of November.

The Euro continues its decline beneath the Cycle Bottom resistance on a sell signal.  A potential panic decline may be imminent.  There is a new 15-month Head & Shoulders formation that matches a potentially more severe decline than previously calculated.  The current Master Cycle may last until the end ofNovember that fits the severity.  The European dominoes are teetering.

Zerohedge remarks, “French consumer confidence cratered to its lowest level in 13 years as a bond market selloff that sent yields soaring, weeks of social unrest sparked by far-left groups, and political instability all collided at once, casting a dark economic cloud over the European country.”

Crude oil may be consolidating before another porbe toward the neckline of its Head & Shoulders formation.  It may go modestly lower. Trending Strength may arise later this week, offering the potential ability to overcome the neckline and the Cycle Top resistance at 111.68.

ZeroHedge comments, “US natural gas futures have fallen to levels last seen in April as unusually warm weather across the Lower 48 suppresses heating demand, potentially reflecting El Niño’s weather-related influence. Europe faces a much different outlook: a cold snap forecast for next week has helped push benchmark TTF NatGas prices toward 100 euros per megawatt-hour, highlighting the widening split between the two energy markets.”

Gold is consolidating near the trendline and its Master Cycle low.  There may be a diminishing potential of a final probe to or beneath the trendline at 3942.00.  The Master Cycle low either has been made at 3975.65, or may be overdue imminently.  Once the rally begins, it may extend to mid-December.

The Agriculture Index is hovering above yesterday’s low at 388.66.  However, the Fractal Model allows a final probe as faar as the mid-Cycle support at 383.67.  The Master Cycle may be a week longer than average in time, but remains short in price.  Both conditions must be met.

Bitcoin is hovering above its Master Cycle low at 79212.00.  The new Master Cycle may be gathering strength as buyers begin to ooutstrip sellers.  A surge of strength may be imminent, which may propel it above the 52-day Mocing average ar 81721.00.  That action may offer a buy signal which obtains confirmaton above the trendline at 82200.00.

The Insurance Index has peaked last Friday, Completing its most recent Master Cycle.  A quick look at the chart reveals this year’s high wwas made  in July.  However, the all-time high was made in november 2024.  It has gone sideways for the past two years since then.  The new Master Cycle may persist to the end of the year, leaving plenty of downside room to damage this index.  The initial downdraft may reach the Cycle Bottom at 13703.13.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen

9:15am

Good Morning!

SPX futures rose to 7661.30 this morningafter reaching a low on Friday of 7612.07.  The Master Cycle may be complete, allowing the SPX to rise.  A rally above the 52-day Moving Average at 7702.00 allows a buy signal.  The decline took only 3 days and may be too shallow to count as a bear market, despite the turmoil under the hood.  The Cycles Model may allow the uptrend to continue to mid-December.

ZeroHedge reports, “US futures are higher as oil slides on hopes that a regional delegation in Tehran can breathe some life into US-Iran peace talks, and as Meta jumps after finally unveiling how it plans to pay for its AI capex binge…”

The VIX declined to 18.69, on its way to mid-Cycle support at at 18.35.  Beneath that a sell signal may be generated.  The Cycles Model sugests an approximate 4-week decline that may venture beneath the Triangle trendline again.

The US 10-year Bond Yield tested the neckline at 50.00 this morning, but was pushed back.  The current Master Cycle is entering its reversal window with the downside fractal possibly incomplete.  I had originallybeen viewing the 50-day Moving Average at 49.77, but TNX has declined beneath it.  The next suport level may be the rising trendline near 48.30.  Volatility may be rising by mid-week, possibly assisting the completion of this decline.  Sbusequent volatility may also push TNX back above the Head & Shoulders neckline.

The US Dollar has risen above its Head & Shoulders neckline which may activate that formation.  This may be an early warning for dollar-sensitive indices.

The Euro has dclined further from its Cycle Bottom at 112.11 this morning.  This a;ction may ratify the sell signal.  The Cycles Model indicate rising strength (of the decline) developing through this week and possibly extending to the end of November.

Crude oil is consolidating beneath Friday’s  high.  Should it go higher, especially above the neckline, the Master Cycle may fully engage that formation.  Otherwise, WTI may pull back to one of its nearby supports.  Trending Strength may return later this week.

Gold bounced from its trendline and Master Cycle low at 3975.65.  The decline may be complete and a possible new trend developing.  However, the nearest confirmaton of a buy signal may be the Intermediate resistance at 4204.07.  Sentiment is bearish, suggesting the potential for a comeback.

ZeroHedge comments, “Markets have been volatile over the last several weeks, with selling pressure spreading across tech stocks and speculative assets. Gold and miners have been no exception, with the latter getting caught up in the broader liquidation and suffering significant selling pressure of their own.”

The Agriculture Index fell even beyond the anticipated low.  The Master Cycle may have had a final surprise as it tests the mid-Cycle support at 393.42.  There may be a final probe to mid-Cycle suport.  However, the fractal may be complete as is.

Bitcoin appears to have made its Master Cycle low on Saturday.  Its market operates 24/7.  Should that be the case, we may see an imminent reversal. The 52-day Moving Average lies at 81754.00.  A rise above that level may offer a buy signal, to be confirmed at a rally above the trendline at 8/2200.00.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen

8:20 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures made a new low at 7634.30 this morning.  but hasn’t declined beneath the October 16 low at 7631.77.  Should it not go lower, the uptrend remains intact.  There are several levels of retracement that leave room for a resumption of the rally.  The first is 7500.00.  The next may be near 7300.00, where the possibility of a further decline arises.  The Cycles Model suggests that, should the SPX remain above 7631.77, the certainty of the rally resuming rises signifivantly as Trending Strength may arrive by Monday.  The reason is that two-thirds of the SPX companies advanced yesterday while the index declined.  The rotation is terrific as AI loses favor to the blue chips.

NDX futures declined to 28844.00,, remaining above the September 16 low at 28753.00.  This is not a sign of a bear market, despite the 8% decline from its all-time high.  The AI momentum trade has been a bust, losing all its YTD gains.

ZeroHedge reports, “US futures are lower, erasing a modest overnight bounce, as markets scramble after Thursday’s violent AI liquidation while oil rises again…”

The premarket VIX is consolidating beneath yesterday’s high at 20.31.  The stall is noteworthy as it reintroduces the concept of a Triangle Tail formation.  The Cycles Model reports unusual calm in the VIX for the next three weeks.

The US 10-year Bond Yield may have found some support at the 52-dy Mocing Average at 49.71 this morning.  However, the Fractal Model suggests another push lower may be in order as investors may seek a “safe haven” from declining stocks.

The US Dollar languishes just beneath the neckline at 101.80 this morning.  The Cycles Model suggests.  Both the Cycles Model and the Fractal Model suggest another possible week of sideways-to-lower movement.  The USD may make a comeback at the turn of the month.  The current Master Cycle may persist to the end of November.

The Euro has declined to 111.85 this morning, beneath the Cyclle Bottom at 112.19.  Thsi offers a sell signal for the Euro.  Volatility may pick up next week, adding momentum to the decline.  The Cycles Model implies the decline may continue to the end of November.

Crude Oil advanced to 101.96 this morning, on its way to test the neckline of its Head & Shoulders formation at 106.75.  The indication of a Master Cycle high at 101.90 may be in error,as WTI has exceeded it today, within the parametes of the existing Master Cycle.  If so, the price of oil may halt at the neckline for a time, delaying the engagement of the head & Shoulders formation until later this year.

Gold has declined to 39..86 this morning, testing the trendline near 3950.00.  The strongest likelihood is that gold may be setting up for a bounce at the trendline.  However, should it decline beneath it, a re-evaluation may be necessary.  Gold has cracked the 4000.00 “line in the sand” but true support may lie beneath it.  Resolution may come quickly.

The Agriculture Index may be testing Wednesday’s Master Cycle low.  While there remains a short window for a lower Cycle terminus, the existing MC has made its intended target in  the appropriate time.  Look for Trending Strength to rteturn next week as it resumes the uptrend to the end of November.

Bitcoin is challenging the 52-day Moving Average at 81701.00 this morning.  There is still a short window for Bitcoin to establish the Master Cycle terminus.  In fact, it may have made a low on October 15 at 79762.00.  However, there has been no clear signal since then.  Trending Strength may reappear next week, giving a clearer direction of the Cycle.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen

10:45 am

SPX may have issued a sell signal this morning.  Initial support may be had at 7500.00.  Should it remain beneath the trendline, tomorrow may be a panic down day.  Short leverage by hedge funds is at a 5-year high, a set-up  for a possible reversal soon.

8:00 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures declined to 7669.90, potentially breaking through the 5-month diagonal trendline near 7675.00.  Shjould it open beneath the trendline it may offer a sell signal.  A likely target for this decline may be the mid-Cycle suport at 7313.04.  It may go lower. Should it do so, Friday may bring a panic decline, followed by several limit down days through early November.

NDX futures have fallen to 29232.00 this morning, as it aproaches the bottom of its 5-month trading range.  Should it break down beneath its mid-Cycle support at 27982.98, it may continue to the long-term channel trendline near 26500.00.  The Cycles Model suggests a possible panic session on Friday.  .

ZeroHedge reports, “US futures are lower as the AI trade discovered that there is no right answer on capex…”

The pre-market VIX rose to 18.58 this morning, reintroducing the buy signal.  While the Cycles Model doesn’t indicate unusual activity, the VIX is naturally volatile as seen this morning.  There is a potential Head & Shoulders formation that suggests a breakout of the 17-month Triangle formation.  While investors are still buying puts and selling calls, a rude awakening may ensue.

The US 10-year Bond Yield plummeted this morning, approaching its Head & Shoulders neckline at 50.00.  It may challenge the 52-day Moving Average, as the declining fractal may not be complete.  However, once the target is reached, it may be due for a violent reversal as trending strength returns next week.

ZeroHedge observes, “The week’s lone coupon auction took place at 1pm and amid speculation of fireworks at the next Treasury Refunding Announcement in two weeks, when Citi is confident Bessent could announce the end of 20Y auction, it could very well be one of the last sales of 20Y paper for the US.

11: am

The US Dollar slipped beneath the Head & Shoulders neckline, but rallied back above it.  This action formed a Trading Cycle low.  Trading Cycles are lesser Cycles that may provide importatn reversal points within the Master Cycle. In this case, the Master Cyclle may resume  its uoptrend to the end of November.  Note that the Head & Shoulders formation may now be engaged.

The Euro has declined back beneath its Cycle Bottom support at 112.19.  A sell signal may be obtained should it remain beneath that level.

Crude oil has been in consolidation for the past week.  It may be able to break out of the sideways formation but remain beneath the neckline of the Head & Shoulders until the end of the month.

Gold has established a new low, reiterating its sell signal.  The current Master Cycle may last to mid-December, allowing gold to decline beneath what may be a new Head & Shoulders neckline.  More on that later.

The Agriculture Index has tested yesterday’s low and it held.  Once the base has ben firmly established, confidence may come back and with it, trending strength in the next week.  The Head & Shoulders necklne may be in sight as it may cross over in November.

Bitcoin has been chopping around the trendline at 82200.00 for over two weeks as it winds up its Master Cycle.  Ther may be some strength over the weekend to bolster its attempt to reach the Cycle Top at 89625.00.  However, there are no assurances it will make it as the Master Cycle is nearly spent.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen

8:30 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures rose to 7751.10 this morning, near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 7762.42.  A retracement may go higher, all the way to, but not exceeding, the top tick at 7844.52.   However, most retracements fall within the confines of the Fibonacci gradients.  The Cycles Model infers a rise in volatility later this week, usually associated with a breakout or breakdown.  So the market is trying to decide whether to go higher (to challenge the top) or lower.  Hedge funds have reduced their exposure while retail investors are buying at a rate not seen since 2017.  Corporate buybacks are due to resume next week. The breaking point on the downside is the Diagonal trendline at 7675.00 today.

Zerohedge reports, “US futures are higher as blowout results from SpaceX and a monster preannouncement from Super Micro gave the battered AI trade a reason to bounce, while Elon Musk’s open endorsement of a SpaceX-Tesla merger added to the buzz…”

The  premarket VIX is challenging its prior trading channel trendline at 17.31 this morning.  The Cycles Model anticipates a possible reversal later this morning.  Should that happen, the VIX may begin to rise toward the upper Triangle trendline, near 24.00.  A breakout may be universally recognized as it approaches the Cycle Toop at 25.18.

The US 10-year Bond Yield continues to climb up the rising Inttermediate support at 50.95 this morning.  There; may be a slight risk of falling back toward the 52-day Moving Average at 49.59.  However, the retracment fractal may be complete at the low of 50.37.  That comment is brought forward by an indication of a possible minor Cycle low this weekend.

The US Dollar is hovering beneath the Head & Shoulders neckline at 101.80.  It, too may be in a minor Cycle low this week.  A rise above the neckline at 101.80 may signal a reversal may be underway, offering an aggressive buy signal.  The buy signal may be confirmed on a rally above the Cycle Top at 102.34.  The USD may gain volatility near the end of the month.

The Euro may be attempting to maintain support at the Cycle Bottom at 112.22.  However, should it lose that support a sell signal may be used.  The potential for a free-fall in the Euro may arise next week that may last to the end of November.

ZeroHedge remarks, “France’s accelerating death spiral, amid social unrest by far-left groups, political gridlock, and deteriorating public finances as the welfare state teeters on the brink of implosion, comes just six months before a presidential election that has only given polling tailwinds to right-wing candidate Marine Le Pen.”

Crude oil may be corrcting its recent rally with a decline to te 52-day Moving Average at 91.44.  An alternative may be a sideways consolidation over the next week as WTI burns off its overbought condition.  Volatility may pick up near the end of the month.

ZeroHedge observes, “OSINT X accounts will soon cover the first Russian tanker carrying diesel for the US market, following President Trump’s deal with Moscow to supply the US amid a global refining crisis sparked by Ukraine hitting Russian energy assets and ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.”

Gold continues its consolidation beneath major resistance at 4239.66 and above a trendline near 3950.00.  The consolidation may resolve itself by the weekend.  Volatility may spike next week.  The trend remains “down” until further notice.

The Agriculture Index may have made its final low in its current Master Cycle this morning.  A reversal may be imminent.  The new master Cycle may challenge the Head & Shoulders neckline at 450.39 by the end of October.  Harvest is still underway.

ZeroHedge quips, “Wheat futures just touched a two-month low, which for some is a sign the food-inflation scare of the summer has come and gone. Goldman disagrees.”

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen

7:45 am.

Good Morning!

SPX futures consolidated beneath the 52-day Moving Average at 7706.00 in the overnight session.  Support lies at the Ending Diagonal trendline at 7660.00.  Beneath that, the sell signal may be confirmed.  The subsequent support level may be found at the mid-Cycle level at 7304.68.  Internally, there were 122 more new lows than new highs.  The NYSE Hi-Lo Index may be set to plunge deeper by the end of the month, taking the SPX with it.

NDX futures declined to 29317.00 this morning as the rebound stopped beneath the 52-day Moving Average at 29851.97.  The rebound turned into a weak retracement.  Should the NDX remain above its Friday low at 29073.00,  it may make a second attempt at the 52-day Moving Average.  The Cycles Model implies a sideways consolidation may take place this week.  The correction is already underway, with the average stock down approximately 10%.  The correction may not be complete until the leaders join in a washout decline.

The premarket VIX rose to a morning high at 18.88.  Yesterday it tested the trendline at 17.39 and it held.  There may be some consolidation (calm?) to the end of the month.  Vix may become very active in the month of November.

The US Dollar has found support at the neckline of its Head & Shoulders formation at 101.80.  While this denotes a buy signal for the USD, most may wait for a breakout to buy the USD.  The Cycles Model offers an intermediate level at the Cycle Top that may confirm the buy signal.

The Euro has declined beneath the Cycle Bottom at 112.28 to create a sell signal.  It remains beneath the inverted Head & Shoulders formation, leaving the formation active and engaged.  The Cycles Model suggests the decline may resume until the end of November.

ZeroHedge observes, “An 11 p.m. curfew took effect in parts of the Paris metro area on Monday, along with curfew restrictions in other cities, after the Macron government embarrassingly struggled for weeks to contain far-left social unrest and chaos that had spiraled out of control. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu said the measures helped restore calm overnight and will put new curfews in place where needed today.”

The US 10-year Bond Yield is testing Intermediate support at 50.85 this morning.  Should it succeed, TNX may go higher.  It may consolidate beneath the Cycle Top for the next week, building strength.  Be advised that  Trending Strength is due for a comeback in another week.  The current mster Cycle may continue higher to mid-November.

Crude oil bounced this morning as it enters a corrective phase.  The boundaries of this phase may be the Intermediate support at the low end and the neckline of the Head & Shoulders at the high end.  The correction may last another week,  followed by an increase in Trending Strength that may carri WTI above the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation.

Gold may be consolidating this week while burning off the oversold condition.  The Cycles Model is relatively calm for the next week, with volatility picking up next mid-week.  The trend is down with support at the Head & Shoulders neckline near 3950.00.  The current Master Cycle is not due for completion until the end of November.

Bitcoin made an attempt at the trendline at 82200.00 this morning, but failed.  It has another week in the current Master Cycle to complete its uptrend near the Cycle Top at 89386.00.

The Agriculture Index may be winding up its master Cycle as it eases down to a potential new low for its Master Cycle.  It may be due for a reversal imminently.  Trending Strength may return at the end of the month.