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crude cycle patterns

VIX

VIX topped on Monday and declined almost 42% through Friday, erasing the prior week’s gains.  What may have been strength turned into weakness as central banks unleashed massive amounts of liquidity into the markets   Apparently it was imperative to keep equities positive for the quarter end.

(Bloomberg)  The market convulsions of the last week have been a lesson in… Continue reading

VIX VIX bounced from its Pennant formation trendline closing above its Short-term support at 14.60.  This maintains a potential aggressive buy signal (NYSE sell signal). A breakout above the weekly high at 17.09 may confirm the signal.  Further confirmation lies above the mid-Cycle resistance at 15.87 and Intermediate-term resistance at 17.33.

(ZeroHedge)  Over the past two weeks we observed two… Continue reading

VIXVIX made its final swing low at weekly mid-Cycle support at 15.93 on Friday morning, making it the last support before its reversal.  An aggressive buy signal (NYSE sell signal) may be confirmed with a rise above Long-term support/resistance at 18.30.  A breakout above the neckline suggests a very robust follow-through rally that may last up to a month.

SPX retraces to the… Continue reading

VIXVIX challenged its Long-term support at 16.37 but closed above it.  Usually a drop under 20 is a harbinger of calmer markets.  ZeroHedge says, “Not so fast!”  Selling Volatility is not a safe bet, says Bloomberg.

The SPX right shoulder now matches the left. 

The right shoulder of the Head & Shoulders formation in the SPX now matches the left… Continue reading

VIX— VIX gapped through its declining trendline, giving a confirmed sell signal for SPX. The rally has resumed with implications of a much higher outcome.

SPX challenges Long-term support.

SPX challenged weekly Long-term support at 2056.19, closing just above it. This leaves SPX on a confirmed sell signal and vulnerable to a drop to or below double trendlines near 2025.00 (also round number support at… Continue reading

VIX— VIX made a new Master Cycle low on Thursday, 57 days after the initial Cycle low on February 25. It occurred in the form of a rare triple zigzag formation. Who is the deep pocketed Volatility seller?

SPX makes a new closing high.

SPX eked out a new intra-day (2120.92) and closing high (2117.69) today. The support levels have become dangerously shallow, making it… Continue reading

VIX VIX extended the “tail” of its Triangle formation this week, bottoming on Wednesday. A rally above the mid-Cycle resistance at 14.24 may confirm that the reversal to new highs may be underway. A rally above the Head & Shoulders neckline may get very exciting.

SPX made a new all-time high, but closed the week at a loss.

SPX made a new intra-day high at… Continue reading

VIX— VIX achieved its inverted Head & Shoulders target last week, plus another higher target given to subscribers. The fractal pattern in VIX has surprised most observers and may repeat the pattern yet again.

SPX has failed at Long-term support.

SPX has now failed at Long-term support at 1903.30. What is worse, it closed beneath it, losing all near-term support until it reaches mid-Cycle support… Continue reading

VIX— VIX appears to have ended its decline at four degrees of trend on July 3. On Thursday it had its biggest 1-day rally in six months. Now for the follow-through.

SPX’s higher close masks a lot of turmoil underneath.

This is the second consecutive week that SPX could not make a new high. On Thursday, it tested its weekly Short-term support for the first… Continue reading

VIX— VIX is making what is called a throw-under low, challenging the closing low made in January 2007. The final descent was particularly sharp in the past two days, suggesting an invisible hand at work.

SPX closes in on the Upper Trendline.

SPX is making new highs as it closes the gap between it and its Ending Diagonal trendline and weekly Cycle Top resistance at… Continue reading