VIX has tested the Broadening formation high and its Weekly cycle Top support at 21.11. It is still in the danger zone and may be ready for another liftoff. It may be pricing in more economic damage to come.
The SPX is poised above mid-Cycle support.
SPX has been testing mid-cycle support at 1937.00. It has not been able to better… Continue reading
— VIX has shifted gears after testing the Broadening formation high. While VIX had a lackluster week, the VIX ETFs ramped higher. An even more interesting dichotomy than last week’s.
The SPX worst closing low since October 2014.
SPX took back half the gains that it made off its August 24 low, closing beneath mid-cycle support/resistance at 1934.60. The rally could… Continue reading
— VIX rocketed to 53 on Monday morning, followed by a pullback to its Megaphone formation. While there was a huge push-down in VIX, the VIX ETFs had their shorts squeezed. An interesting dichotomy.
The SPX epic decline is rolled back.
Monday’s epic decline in SPX was rolled back by a 50% retracement back into green in the days that followed.… Continue reading
— VIX exceeded its Megaphone target by Friday’s close. There is likely to be a pullback to Cycle Top support at 19.63 from here, followed by a stronger rally. Investors finally caught on that they needed to hedge their positions.
SPX “triggers” the Broadening Wedge.
The SPX fell through its Broadening Wedge trendline, triggering a potential move to the weekly Cycle Bottom support at 1639.64.… Continue reading
— VIX made a new Master Cycle low on August 5. This week it broke (marginally) above its prior high. The next move out of a Broadening Bottom or Megaphone formation is to break out above the upper trendline. Its average target matches that of the Wave A top in mid-December.
SPX bounces from the Broadening Wedge trendline.
The SPX rallied off its Broadening… Continue reading
— VIX made a reversal pattern this week, but closed near its weekly low. The next move out of a Broadening Bottom or Megaphone formation is to break out above the upper trendline. Its average target matches that of the Wave A top in mid-December
SPX bounces from Long-term support again.
The SPX rallied off its Long-term support at 2066.42. The May 20 high at… Continue reading
— After breaking out above Cycle Top resistance, VIX dropped to the bottom of its trading range, making a new low in a supernormal collapse. This is referred to as a Broadening Bottom or Megaphone formation which is a reversal pattern. Its average target matches that of the Wave A top in mid-December.
SPX bounces from Long-term support.
The SPX rally fell short of its… Continue reading
— VIX gapped through its declining trendline, giving a confirmed sell signal for SPX. There is a potential Head & Shoulders formation with implications of a much higher outcome once the neckline is exceeded.
SPX challenges Long-term support.
SPX challenged weekly Long-term support at 2058.31 a second time, closing just above it. This leaves SPX on a confirmed sell signal and vulnerable to a… Continue reading
SPX challenges Long-term support.
SPX challenged weekly Long-term support at 2056.19, closing just above it. This leaves SPX on a confirmed sell signal and vulnerable to a drop to or below double trendlines near 2025.00 (also round number support at… Continue reading
— VIX closed above Intermediate-term support at 13.68, maintaining the aggressive sell signal for SPX. A breakout above its descending trendline and prior high at 15.74 will announce the resumption of the rally in VIX and confirm the sell signal in the SPX.
SPX closes beneath Short-term support.
SPX closed beneath weekly Short-term support at 2108.79 but hasn’t yet closed beneath Intermediate-term support at 2096.52.… Continue reading