There is no disputing that the Euro is in big trouble. How much trouble may be defined technically with the Head & Shoulders pattern illustrated in the chart below that has just been triggered. This pattern projects a minimum target of 96.60, meaning the Euro may drop below parity…possibly in… Continue reading
— I have reset the wave count on the VIX to correspond more closely with the Cycle Model. The Trading Cycle high on May 18 occurred on day 63 of the new Master Cycle. Normally, Trading Cycles are 60 days long, so that high meets the parameters. It turned out that today was a pivot day, which signals that VIX is ready to move considerably… Continue reading
— The VIX closed beneath Mid-Cycle resistance at 24.06 after having a breakout day. The breakout signals that VIX is ready to move considerably higher after its pullback. It has launched into a Primary Cycle, due to top out June 8-11. The alternate view is that this cycle may extend to June 13-14, due to the influence of the Euro.
— My call that the… Continue reading
— The VIX is in a second stage pullback from Mid-Cycle resistance at 24.35 back to its Head & Shoulders neckline today. It overshot the neckline on the first pullback and the second one is not as deep, but we would not like to see it go beneath short-term support at 20.85, which is just above the neckline. There is a minor pivot this weekend,… Continue reading
— The VIX rallied to Mid-Cycle resistance at 24.49 today. A very strong third of a third wave has begun. Last Friday’s minor low qualified as an early Trading Cycle pivot. It appears that the next significant pivot for the VIX may be next Thursday, May 24. At that time it should have met or exceeded its inverted Head & Shoulders target and its wave… Continue reading
— The VIX made a second daily close above the Head & Shoulders neckline at 20.91 today. This opens the door for a very strong advance in a potential third of a third wave. It is probable that last Friday’s minor low qualifies as an early Trading Cycle pivot. If that is the case, there may be another month of rally left in the VIX.… Continue reading
For the past two years I have observed the cycles and forecast a very large, abrupt decline at the end of a particular cycle I call the Master Cycle. Master Cycles are 8-9 months in duration and always end at a major low. Analysts proclaim that when a cycle is left-translated (topping before the mid-point of the cycle), we may expect major declines in the… Continue reading
— The VIX rallied above the top trendline of its Ending Diagonal formation, also closing above intermediate-term trend support/resistance at 16.56. This confirms the buy signal from its March 16 Master Cycle low. In addition, the 17-day and 60-day pivot lows (two different cycles) occurred this week, giving the “all clear” for a dramatic rally through the end of April.
The 50-day moving… Continue reading
In the third quarter of 2011, it has become obvious that many investors, mutual fund and hedge fund managers have ignored the role volatility plays in evaluating market risk. It is possible that they view it, if at all, as a dispersion model, not a harbinger of market direction. That is because rising volatility accompanied rising markets during the entire decade of the 90s, with… Continue reading
I have been an avid reader of Martin Armstrong’s Economic Confidence Model. In brief summary, there is the dumb money that follows the crowd while smart, or “hot money” is constantly looking for opportunities throughout the world. Hot money can be the bane of governments, just as George Soros made over a $billion in a single trade against the Bank of England. … Continue reading